Forecasting
Forecasting is risky business, at times extending greater than 10 years into the future. AQS has developed rigorous procedures and sophisticated quantitative models that ensure reliable and representative forecasts. All potential threats and opportunities are incorporated into a comprehensive Monte Carlo simulation forecast that reveals a range of all possible outcomes AND the likelihood of achieving any result within that range. Understand how variables interact to produce business outcomes at various levels of success. Gain valuable insight into which opportunities to pursue and which risks to mitigate in order to maximize value. Link multiple forecasts to our powerful portfolio analysis module, Fulcrum, for a comprehensive view of how individual risks and opportunities impact your organizational risk profile. Click here to learn more about simulation forecasting.
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Peer Review
Models are constructed every day to facilitate decisions involving hundreds of millions of dollars. Research has shown that, even among expert modelers, human error impacts between 2% and 15% of cells. This means that in a model with 250 formula cells, there is a 99% chance of having a calculation error; there is an 87% chance of having four or more calculation errors! Often, this translates into material inaccuracies in model outputs. At AQS, every model we build is quality reviewed by an independent professional modeler. Now you too can have the confidence that comes with independent review. Our Model QA service entails a detailed review of model specification, mathematical representation, cell references and assumption documentation for every line of code in the model. With our professional quality review you can be confident that your model is producing results you can trust.
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