The goal of this training is to establish a core understanding of the forecast process, methods for translating real-world phenomena into representative mathematical models, and a working knowledge of forecasting & modeling tools. All attendees will receive a 1-year license for AQS Model Builder, a powerful add-in to Microsoft Excel (a $699 value). Upon completion of the course, participants will have constructed two versions of a strategic forecast model, representing two alternative levels of complexity and sophistication.
Strategic versus short term forecasting
Forecasting as a process
Constructing a strategic forecast
Segmentation and target pools
Probability of commercialization
Technology adoption
Market share
Pricing dynamics
Revenue model
Introduction to uncertainty and risk in the strategic forecast
Sources of uncertainty and risk
Representing uncertainty and risk in your strategic forecast
Fundamentals of probability
Selecting the appropriate distributions
Dependencies and correlations
Interpretation of probabilistic outputs
Introduction to sensitivity analysis
Reporting forecast results
Modality: Didactic and experiential Prerequisites: None
