Simulation Forecast for Portfolio of In-Line and Development Products Simulation forecasts were constructed for the product portfolio of a global life sciences company to facilitate strategic planning and investment decisions. This model provided the capability to evaluate various potential strategies to maximize portfolio value over a 15-year horizon. It was constructed as a persistent decision support tool and continues to be utilized for develop versus acquire decisions, to value the market for existing and potential product lines, and to provide insights into the impact of various marketing strategies.
Simulation Forecast for Neuro-Stimulation with Constrained Surgical Capacity A simulation forecast was created to inform a licensing and acquisition opportunity, where multiple applications would compete for stereotactic neurosurgeon capacity. All potential applications were modeled with surgical resource allocation assigned according to disease severity and prevalence. Had each disease state been modeled independently the market potential would have been significantly overstated. By expanding the model to emulate how the market would operate to maximize clinical impact under resource constraints, we were able to facilitate a realistic valuation for multipole opportunities within this domain.
Forecast and Valuation of Ablation
Technologies
A market forecast model was
constructed within liver, lung, kidney and bone cancer applications for
multiple ablation technologies, including RF, chemo, cryo, microwave and
irreversible electroporation. Competitive adoption among the ablation
categories was probabilistically modeled, along with market share among
competitors within the categories of microwave and irreversible
electroporation. Pricing dynamics were modeled according to the competitive
environment, both current and future (taking into account the probability and
uncertain timing of novel competitors). A fifteen year probabilistic revenue
model was created along with profit and loss statement. NPV analysis was
completed with valuation of one competitor within the microwave category and
one within the irreversible electroporation category.
Forecast
to Optimize Clinical Trial Strategy for Pipeline Oncology Pharmaceutical
A global market simulation model was constructed
employing Monte Carlo simulation methods to facilitate selection of optimal
clinical trial investment strategy. The model incorporated a hybrid of
simulation and discrete scenario analysis capability. From a potential of
roughly a dozen trials across multiple tumor types under consideration,
analyses provided guidance regarding optimal trial initiations given budgetary
constraints and risk/reward ratios.
Discrete
Time Markov Model to Forecast Oncology Patient Pool Size by Line of Treatment
and Therapeutic Regime
Clinical
trials to establish claims for novel or existing pharmaceuticals are costly and
wrought with uncertainty regarding outcome. This model provided a forecast of
patient flows from diagnosis through each line of treatment (including watchful
waiting through fourth line treatment), using a discrete time Markov Chain
model. Relapse and remission pools were also forecast. Patient populations were
dynamically represented through time both by line of treatment and therapeutic
regime.
Simulation Forecast for Continuous Glucose Monitoring A simulation forecast was created to inform investment and/or L&A activities within the emerging technology space for consumer-focused continuous glucose monitoring devices. Multiple combinations of potential device performance and product footprints were modeled to incorporate all known risks and opportunities. Research was designed and executed to drive model inputs.
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