An accurate forecast of adoption can be the cornerstone of your investment and strategic planning decisions. Prior to commercialization, the forecaster must rely on analogues, research and expert judgment to establish parameter estimates for the adoption forecast. After commercialization, history begins to accumulate and any future representation(s) of adoption MUST be consistent with historical sales.
This distance-learning course will outline how to use historical data to inform credible and reliable forecasts of adoption, given even a few historical data points. Topics covered include:of
An overview of the adoption process, including drivers of adoption and how they relate in the Bass Diffusion Model
Comparison of pre- and post-launch forecasting methods
Manual construction of a curve-fitting framework
Method of curve-fitting through a historical data series
How to evaluate the utility of a fitted forecast
Incorporation of fitted results into a larger model
All attendees will receive a FREE TEMPLATE for adoption fitting, which can be used as either a stand-alone application or as an add-in to AQS Model Builder.
